Durante o processo de aprovação do pacote de Obama no Congresso norte-americano na semana passada, ficou um pouco mais evidente o tamanho do problema que o novo governo terá que enfrentar. Inclusive, durante a tramitação, foi questionada até a própria visão de futuro do novo presidente como fez o prêmio Nobel de Economia, Paul Krugman, na última sexta-feira.
“O Sr. Obama tem de ser mais forte ao olhar para o futuro. Caso contrário, o veredicto sobre esta crise pode ser que não, nós não podemos.”
Paul Krugman, The New York Times, 12.02.09
O problema é grande porque não é apenas o estouro de uma bolha (no caso a imobiliária) mas a própria falência de um modelo econômico que já tem mais de três décadas de vigência, a partir do governo de Margareth Thatcher na Inglaterra, no final da década de 1970. Estado mínimo, desregulamentação financeira, neoliberalismo, foram as diretrizes que, desde o governo Reagan, ditaram as regras econômicas nos EUA e desembocaram numa crise de grandes proporções que já provoca essa crise empobrecemento e deflação de ativos.
“A crise empobreceu violentamente as famílias americanas. Derrubou o valor dos imóveis, das ações, deixou-as endividadas. Ao mesmo tempo, há em marcha um perigoso processo de deflação de ativos. Ou seja, de queda continuada de preços de ativos.”
Luis Nassif, www.luisnassif.com.br, 13.02.09
Essa deflação tem provocado, na prática, a piora acentuada da situação dos bancos que, depois do estouro da bolha dos subprime, ainda defrontam-se com a deterioração dos preços dos ativos provocada pela recessão. Depois de queda, coice. Resultado real: quebra do sistema financeiro norte-americano com a maioria dos bancos em estágio pré-falimentar.
“Os maiores bancos norte-americanos já estão insolventes.”
Paulo Tenani, Globo News Painel, 14.02.09
Essa situação dramática do mercado financeiro está a exigir uma intervenção duríssima que requer grande força de vontade do governo. O exemplo do Japão é emblemático. Depois de passar pelo estouro de uma bolha imobiliária bastante parecida com a norte-americana, não teve coragem de mexer com os bancos como deveria ter feito. Enterrou 40% do PIB na tentativa de recuperação e amargou uma estagnação econômica que já dura duas longas décadas.
“Exemplos de países que se meteram em enrascadas semelhantes ensinam que, sem sanear os bancos, não se vislumbra uma recuperação econômica duradoura. Basta olhar para o Japão, o grande fantasma que paira sobre os Estados Unidos. Depois do estouro de sua bolha, no fim dos anos 80, os japoneses injetaram trilhões de ienes na economia, mas procrastinaram por uma década o saneamento dos bancos.”
Giuliano Guandalini, revista Veja, 18.02.09
Enquanto isso, a profundidade da crise começa a ser percebida pelos agentes econômicos que também começam a precificá-la em seus planejamentos, cronogramas e orçamentos. Passado o pânico do final do ano, agora a ficha começa a cair de fato e a certeza de que o ano não será fácil já se instalou definitivamente.
“Vai ser um ano muito complicado para todo mundo. Não dá para tentar se iludir. Essa é a crise mais grave dos últimos 70 anos.”
Alexandre Schwartsman, Globo News Painel, 14.02.09
Pingback: Gestão hoje - a newsletter da TGI » A crise não é o âfim do capitalismoâ?mas é o fim do chamado âmodelo neoliberalâ?
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