Construção de cenários comoreforço para o planejamento estratégico

 
O objetivo do planejamento, por mais competente que seja, não é, ao contrário do que pensa muita gente boa, prever o que vai acontecer no futuro. Por uma razão muito simples: é literalmente impossível prever o futuro. Quem diz o contrário está sendo enganado ou está tentando enganar alguém.

“Não é possível saber e não importa qual é o futuro. A única pergunta relevante é: o que faremos se tal cenário acontecer?”

Arie P. de Geus, planejador, ex-diretor da Shell

Isso porque a incerteza é um componente essencial do futuro e não pode ser eliminada quando se planeja. De acordo com a Macroplan – Prospectiva & Estratégia (http://www.macroplan.com.br/), empresa de consultoria que trabalha há mais de 20 anos na construção de cenários e prospecção de futuros: “A incerteza, a instabilidade e a imprevisibilidade das mudanças socioeconômicas, políticas, culturais e tecnológicas criam riscos e limitações que nem sempre são adequadamente identificados pelo processo de planejamento estratégico.”
Daí, a necessidade de utilização de técnicas que ajudem a organizar as incertezas para o planejamento. Dentre as metodologias disponíveis, a que apresenta melhores resultados é a construção de cenários.

“…o método de construção de cenários é atualmente o mais completo e rico processo de antecipação de futuros. Trabalhando sempre com mais de uma possibilidade, os cenários reduzem a inevitável incerteza frente ao futuro sem cair no determinismo.”

Macroplan, Cinco Cenários para o Brasil, Nórdica, 2001

Um exemplo bem marcante é o da Shell a partir do choque do petróleo de 1973. No início dos anos 70, sua equipe de planejamento construiu, dentre outros, um cenário que previa um choque para cima dos preços do petróleo, sem definir a data. Esse cenário foi amplamente debatido pelos executivos da empresa. Quando o choque veio, apenas a Shell (a menor das “sete irmãs”) estava emocionalmente preparada para a mudança. Hoje é a segunda e a mais rentável de todas elas.
Os cenários bem construídos, portanto, permitem: (1) preparar a organização para as crescentes incertezas do futuro; (2) apoiar a tomada de decisões para a formulação dos grandes objetivos e estratégias institucionais; (3) identificar oportunidades e ameaças decorrentes das mudanças do ambiente externo; e (4) construir um referencial para o plano estratégico da instituição.
Apesar de envolver um processo que pode ser bastante detalhado, há um procedimento mínimo que, embora sem a riqueza da metodologia completa, permite auxiliar a tomada de decisões nos processos de planejamento estratégico, sobretudo quando mais acelerados. Trata-se da construção de três cenários de referência (livre de surpresas, favorável e desfavorável), a partir dos principais fatores críticos de sucesso da situação em análise (econômicos, políticos, sociais, tecnológicos etc.).
O ideal é que dessa construção participem todos os envolvidos no processo de planejamento. Quanto mais participantes, mais ricas as conclusões. Ao final deve-se chegar a uma matriz de referência com as descrições sintéticas dos três cenários possíveis para cada um dos fatores críticos definidos e trabalhar-se naquele que deve ser escolhido, no entendimento dos participantes, como o cenário mais provável. Quando isso é feito, o processo básico do planejamento estratégico começa a partir daí (oportunidades, ameaças, forças, fraquezas…).
No próximo número do Gestão Hoje será apresentado um exemplo de cenários construídos considerando a realidade do país no horizonte 2004.
Um alerta, todavia, é importante: por melhor que seja o cenário construído, ele não elimina as incertezas. Apenas ajuda a dar-lhe uma ordem para que o processo decisório quanto ao futuro melhore de qualidade.

“Já que é impossível prever com exaltidão, a idéia deve ser: esteja preparado para qualquer futuro.”

Clemente Nóbrega, físico consultor brasileiro

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